A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
